Credit: Lionsgate |

The first "Hunger Games" film made $408 million at the US box office. Almost half of that total was made in just the opening week! Let's take a look at the

**graph**of how much money the first film made on a weekly basis, to see if we can predict how the second film will do.

This looks a lot like a decaying

The formula for the sum of a geometric series is

To estimate

So using a film's opening week and total intake (or "gross"), we can estimate

For each of these graphs, there seems to be a downward trend, meaning that later films in each franchise have shorter lifetimes than earlier films. But each of these franchises behaves a little differently. For example, The Harry Potter franchise steadily declined over its 8 films, while the Twilight films plummeted after the first one. Maybe after the first film, only the "Twihards" saw the remaining movies, often in the first few weeks of release (resulting in a low value of

With more study and more data from other films, we could generate a

Here's our best guess for "Catching Fire":

Opening weekend (first 3 days) gross:

Opening week (first 7 days) gross:

Total gross:

**exponential function**, which can be written in the form*Ce*, where^{-t/τ}*C*is the amplitude of the function, and*τ*is the time constant. Another way to think about this is that each week, the film makes a fraction of the money it made the week before. That means we can treat the weekly data as a**geometric series**!The formula for the sum of a geometric series is

*A*/(1-*r*), where*A*is the first term in the series (i.e., how much money the film makes in the first week), and*r*is the ratio from one week to the next. For example, if a film makes $100 million in its first week, and $60 million in its second week, then*r*= 0.6, which is pretty high for a blockbuster release. Larger values of*r*mean that a film has a longer "lifetime" in the theaters -- people are still buying tickets later into the film's run. After "Catching Fire" is out for a week, we'll know exactly what*A*is. But how can we determine what*r*is?To estimate

*r*for "Catching Fire," let's look at how some similar movies did in the past. Let's specifically take the total amount of money each film made in its first week and divide that by how much it made in total, and let's call this ratio*w*(for opening__w__eek). So then:So using a film's opening week and total intake (or "gross"), we can estimate

*r*. Let's see how a few different film franchises compared:For each of these graphs, there seems to be a downward trend, meaning that later films in each franchise have shorter lifetimes than earlier films. But each of these franchises behaves a little differently. For example, The Harry Potter franchise steadily declined over its 8 films, while the Twilight films plummeted after the first one. Maybe after the first film, only the "Twihards" saw the remaining movies, often in the first few weeks of release (resulting in a low value of

*r*).With more study and more data from other films, we could generate a

**probability distribution**for the value of*r*for "Catching Fire." But for now, we can guess that it'll probably be less than*r*for the first "Hunger Games" film, which was ~0.53. Given the positive buzz the new movie is getting, let's say*r*is a relatively healthy 0.5. So to figure out the total amount of money this second film makes, take the gross from its opening week, and divide it by (1-0.5). In other words, double it!Here's our best guess for "Catching Fire":

Opening weekend (first 3 days) gross:

**$160 million**Opening week (first 7 days) gross:

**$220 million**Total gross:

**$440 million (double the opening week)**
Thanks for providing so much interesting and attractive game movie details. Lt of information you picketed here up about Hunger games movie. I also would like to insert a new game taste for the readers and gamer 그래프사이트 You can play the graph game on the graph site that is operated honestly. If you place the bet on the cool bustabit site that has been verified in every way, you can enjoy the graph game properly. Can be clearly distinguished. I recommend only the strongest line of social graph game sites. The best graphite site in Nami is responsible for and guaranteed from the beginning to the end. It is a luxury graph site that has maintained its top level for a long time without any problems. This is the best site for graph games.

ReplyDeleteThe people use entertainment and means of watching such movies and latest show, web series watch channel 4 in usa etc for celebration, especially the individuals who are working at the online platforms use these lighting and fireworks to celebrate the events like Christmas and other festivities and events.

ReplyDeleteThanks and Best of luck to your next Blog in future.

ReplyDelete토토사이트

먹튀검증

프로토

Thanks for posting this educative writeup. I do appreciate your efforts.

ReplyDelete스포츠중계

실시간스포츠중계

토토

ReplyDelete안전놀이터

Thanks for such a fantastic blog.

슬롯머신

ReplyDelete슬롯

슬롯머신사이트

It’s really a great and helpful piece of information

Hunger Games is one of the best movies of Jennifer Lawrence & I am a big fan of her, now I want to know how to Watch ‘Lakers vs Clippers? because I am getting bored right now.

ReplyDeleteThis one is a highly intriguing and timely post. I really appreciate the period of time you spent writing this. You must have done a lot of research and extraction to create your piece. The instructional examples and facts are extremely useful. keep sharing.

ReplyDeleteLeesburg Divorce Lawyer

protective order in virginia

Your blogs are really good and interesting. The Harry Potter franchise steadily declined over its 8 films, while the Twilight films plummeted after the first one. Maybe after the first film, bankruptcy lawyers in virginia beach. It is very great and informative. I got a lots of useful information in your blog. Keeps sharing more useful blogs..

ReplyDeleteThanks for your amazing blog....its really a more informative. To share an useful posts ahead too for us. dinosaur game

ReplyDeleteThanks for posting this knowledge this is very helpfula dn informative and once again thanks for posting and keep it up.

ReplyDeleteit's really helpful piece of information thanks for posting and keep it up

ReplyDeletefrom:online shopping

"Great analysis! This breakdown really sheds light on the economic intricacies within the Hunger Games universe. It's fascinating to see how the fictional world reflects our own socio-economic structures. Kudos to the author for such insightful exploration!"

ReplyDeleteAccused Of Domestic Violence in New Jersey

Driving Without A License New Jersey

I really need to to thank you for this good read!! I certainly loved every bit of it.

ReplyDeleteI’ve got you saved as a favorite to look at new things you post, Im waiting

ReplyDeleteYou made a long-term fan and I’ll be back to see more. Thank you for sharing.

ReplyDeleteYou have touched some pleasant factors here. Any way keep up writing.

ReplyDeleteGood click article. Very thankful Cheers! Excellent writing man, thanks

ReplyDeleteThanks for sharing this information!!

ReplyDeleteBook Writing

Look no further than Connections Unlimited, the innovative word game that promises to stimulate your mind and challenge your linguistic prowess like never before.

ReplyDeleteWhat Beats Rock is pure joy with its bizarre matchups and AI quirks. The humor in 'mental illness beats Gundam' is just one of the many reasons this game is so fun.

ReplyDelete