How much could you expect to win from the Mega Millions lottery?

In case you haven't heard, the Mega Millions lottery reached an astonishing $648 million this week. There were two winning tickets, but only one winner has come forward so far.

Here we'll look at the question of how much money you could expect to win from this lottery. In other words, for every dollar you spend playing the Mega Millions lottery, how much money could you expect to get back?

For reference, here's how some other investments stack up:

  • If you invested $1.00 in the stock market a year ago, you would have $1.23 today. So for every dollar you invested, you would have made an additional 23 cents.
  • If you play roulette at a casino, for every $1.00 you bet, you make, on average, $0.95 back. So for every dollar you bet, you would lose 5 cents.
So it looks like investing in the stock market is a pretty good way to spend a dollar, while playing roulette will lose you some money. How does playing the lottery stack up?

First, we need to know how likely it is for you to win different prizes. In each Mega Millions game you play, you select 5 numbers between 1 and 75, and then one addition number between 1 and 15. Here's what five games look like:


We could calculate the probability of getting all 6 numbers right (using a branch of math called combinatorics), but we'll skip that step for now. The Mega Millions lottery is very up-front with the probabilities of winning. Here's the chart they have on their website, where the left-most column is how many of the five numbers you match (form 1 to 75), and the next column is whether you match that sixth number:


They advertise at the bottom that your chances of "winning any prize" are 1 in 14.7, or about 6.8%, which sounds pretty good. Unfortunately, just about all of that 6.8% is taken up by prizes of $5 or less.

Anyway, let's figure this out: for every $1 you spend on the Mega Millions, how much could you expect to win? In other words, we want to find the expected value of your cash winnings.

Here's a simpler example: suppose you roll a fair die (numbered 1-6), and you win a number of dollars equal to the number that comes up on a roll. So you have a 1 in 6 chance of getting $1, $2, $3, $4, $5, or $6. What's the average amount (or expected value) of money you'd make from this game? To find out, you can add up the probabilities of each event by the outcome of that event. In other words, you can expect to make:

which equals $3.50.

The expected value of the Mega Millions lottery without the jackpot is only about $0.18. But if we include a jackpot of $648 million, the calculation becomes a little more challenging, because that prize can be split if there's more than one winning ticket.

As far as we know, the Mega Millions lottery doesn't publicly announce how many tickets are sold, but it's probably in the many hundreds of millions for big jackpots like this one. As more tickets get sold, it's more likely that there are multiple winners. Let's say enough tickets were sold so that we can expect (there's that word again) about 2 winners.

With these numbers, you can expect to make $1.42 off of every dollar you put in the lottery. Those are better results than the stock market! Any time the lottery exceeds about $250,000,000, your expected winnings are greater than $1.00, so it seems like a good idea to play.

But not so fast. While you're definitely spending a full dollar to play, your winnings are taxable. The government may not tax you much when you win $50 for matching a few numbers, but you can bet they'll tax your jackpot prize (or the $1 million prize for matching 6 numbers). Assuming a 40% tax rate, for every $1.00 you spend, you'll now make only about $0.90, meaning you'll lose 10 cents. And you actually lose at lot more (closer to 40 cents) if you decide to take your winnings all at once. The 10-cent loss is only if you let the lottery make smaller payouts to you over the course of 20 years (and they don't account for inflation).

So to summarize, for every $1.00 you spent on Mega Millions, you could expect to lose about 40 cents. You're better off playing roulette.

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  22. I am very grateful sharing this great testimonies with you, The best thing that has ever happened in my life is how i win the lottery. I am a woman who believe that one day i will win the lottery.finally my dreams came through when i Email Dr Winner . and tell him i need the lottery numbers. i have come a long way spending money on ticket just to make sure i win. But i never know that winning was so easy until the day i meant the spell caster online which so many people has talked about that he is very great in casting lottery spell, so i decide to give it a try.I contacted this man and he did a spell and he gave me the winning lottery numbers. But believe me when the draws were out i was among winners. i win 1.900.000 million Dollar. Dr. Winner truly you are the best, with these man you can will millions of money through lottery. i am so very happy to meet these man, i will forever be grateful to you. Email him for your own winning lottery numbers (Winnersspellcast@gmail.com) or via his website: https://winnersspellcast.blogspot.com or his WhatsApp +2348138289852...

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  23. What a fantabulous post this has been. Never seen this kind of useful post. I am grateful to you and expect more number of posts like these. Thank you very much. The formula will predict the best numbers and then suggests the best way to combine them together giving the punter a greater chance of winning a big prize or have several or multiple winning lines. nằm mơ thấy người yêu cũ đánh con gì

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  24. All thanks to the might spell caster Dr okeke i can't believe I got my husband back to me again. with the help of Dr okeke spell I had read some stuff about Dr. okeke on the internet how he help people restore there marriage or relationship before i contact him he said he will help me bring him back to me I never wanted to believe him because of what I went through of those fake people who claims to be spell caster but i didn't know that all those great stuff I read about Dr okeke were so real and accurate until i got my ex back, after Dr okeke asking for my picture and my husband picture after some time Dr okeke call me and told me my husband is coming back home within 2days it was like a joke to me but i was so surprise that my husband who lift me about 5 months ago came back to me within 2 days asking for my forgiveness After getting my ex back i taught it wise to share my testimony and the good work of Dr okeke with every one on this website I know most people will not believe this testimony because of those fake people online who claims to be a spell caster well am telling the world now there are still real and truthful spell caster and Dr okeke is one of the best and true spell caster i have ever see contact Dr okeke today your problem will be solved Dr okeke is real and truthful spell caster that rebuild any broken relationship or marriage with love spell. Do feel free to Contact Dr okeke via email:( writelovespell@gmail.com.) or reach him on WhatsApp (+2348140443360) he the solution to your problem and predicament HE CAN ALSO HELP WITH THE FOLLOWING PROBLEM

    1. HERPES CURE
    2. CANCER CURE
    3. PREGNANCY SPELL
    4. DIABETES CURE
    5. MARRIAGE SPELL

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  25. Wonderful blog & good post. Its really helpful for me, awaiting for more new post. Keep Blogging! Thank you for this excellently put together blog. Thanks for sharing information with us. With the right winning lottery system that actually works, you can bring the odds in your favor and increase your chances of winning the lottery. 188loto

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  26. I am very happy today with my family. My name is lisa tommy living in USA, My husband left me for a good 3 years now, and i love him so much, i have been looking for a way to get him back since then. i have tried many options but he did not come back, until i met a friend that darted me to Dr.Jato a spell caster, who helped me to bring back my husband after 2 weeks. Me and my husband are living happily together today, That man is great, you can contact him via email jatolovespell@gmail.com Now i will advice any serious persons that found themselves in this kind of problem to contact him now a fast solution without stress.. He always hello, now i call him my father.contact him now he is always online email (jatolovespell@gmail.com) or contact him on his whatsapp mobile line +2348140033827...

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  27. Spell to fix your broken marriage or relationship problem or after a divorce or Breakup,I was recently scam by two of them, until one faithful day i meet a man called Dr Oselumen who help me to get back to the father of my kid after we have been separated for two years,I only pay for the items required for the spell and he cast the spell for me within 24hours my ex husband called me and beg me to forgive him for everything until the end of the world he will never leave me again we are back together.if you need a real and quick love spell or you are passing through pregnancy problem Dr Oselumen is the answer, Please if any body needs. LOVE SPELL,LOTTERY,PREGNANCY SPELL, DIVORCE SPELL,STOP COURT CASE AND WIN ANY COURT PROBLEM,DEATH SPELL,BUSINESS SPELL AND MANY MORE YOU MAY NEED. Email him now for your own help. via email droselumen@gmail.com add him on whatsapp line or call +2348054265852.

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  28. Nice blog, thanks for sharing the information. I will come to look for update. Keep up the good work...HK Prize

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  29. CONTACT THE BEST LOTTERY SPELL CASTER FOR THE RIGHT LOTTERY NUMBERS NOW HIS LOTTERY SPELL IS 100% GUARANTEE WHATSAPP +2348070670337
 
Hello everyone am Raymond from Pennsylvania USA I want to share my wonderful testimony of how a powerful spell caster called Dr Freedom helped me to win lottery, i have been playing lottery for a long time now but I had no luck everything changed when I messaged Dr Freedom about winning the lottery he assured me that I will be the next winner he told me what to do and I did it and 24 hours later he sent me the lottery numbers and I played it I couldn't believe it I won $1,000,000 dollars it's was the best thing that have ever happened to me in my life. If you want to win a lottery WhatsApp or Call Dr Freedom on this number +234870670337 you can as well email him at freedomspellcast@gmail.com
    He is indeed a powerful spell caster that can help you achieve your dream of becoming a winner someday

    ReplyDelete
  30. CONTACT THE BEST LOTTERY SPELL CASTER FOR THE RIGHT LOTTERY NUMBERS NOW HIS LOTTERY SPELL IS 100% GUARANTEE WHATSAPP +2348118829899
     
    Hello everyone am Raymond from Pennsylvania USA I want to share my wonderful testimony of how a powerful spell caster called Dr Great helped me to win lottery, i have been playing lottery for a long time now but I had no luck everything changed when I messaged Dr Great about winning the lottery he assured me that I will be the next winner he told me what to do and I did it and 24 hours later he sent me the lottery numbers and I played it I couldn't believe it I won $1,000,000 dollars it's was the best thing that have ever happened to me in my life. If you want to win a lottery WhatsApp or Call Dr Great on this number +2348118829899 or email him at infinitylovespell@gmail.com or infinitylovespell@yahoo.com 

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  31. CONTACT THE BEST LOTTERY SPELL CASTER FOR THE RIGHT LOTTERY NUMBERS NOW HIS LOTTERY SPELL IS 100% GUARANTEE WHATSAPP +2348118829899
     
    Hello everyone am Raymond from Pennsylvania USA I want to share my wonderful testimony of how a powerful spell caster called Dr Great helped me to win lottery, i have been playing lottery for a long time now but I had no luck everything changed when I messaged Dr Great about winning the lottery he assured me that I will be the next winner he told me what to do and I did it and 24 hours later he sent me the lottery numbers and I played it I couldn't believe it I won $1,000,000 dollars it's was the best thing that have ever happened to me in my life. If you want to win a lottery WhatsApp or Call Dr Great on this number +2348118829899 or email him at infinitylovespell@gmail.com or infinitylovespell@yahoo.com 

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  32. My name is Giovanni, am feeling so much better now after Dr. Raymond healed me of corona virus with the help of a spell. it really hurt to have lost my mother and wife to this virus before meeting this great healer, i am so happy to have survive this deadly virus. A friend of mine Lee from China told me how this great Dr. Raymond healed two of his Daughter with a spell, so I decided to contact him immediately for help. I did as he instructed and now am healed completely. What a magnificent experience with Dr Raymond. I will not stop sharing these testimonies until each patients  recovered. Thanks to the great Dr. Raymond for restoring my health. Contact him via: Email> swiftspellcast@gmail.com   WhatsApp> +2348118116281
    He also solve issues listed below
    (1)HIV/AIDS
    (2) Do you always have a nightmare?
    (3) Do you want to be promoted in the office?
    (4) Spiritual protection
    (5) Do you want children?
    (6) Do you want to get rich?
    (7) You want your husband / wife to be yours forever?
    (8) Do you need financial assistance?
    (9) Are you cheated and want to Recover lost money?
    (10) Cancer treatment and various diseases
    (11) You want to stop divorce
    (12) Commercial protection
    (13) Looking for a job
    (14) Body care
    (15) Divorce spell. (16)Bring back my Ex.
    If you need to resolve any of these issues today, please contact the solution temple ...

    ReplyDelete
  33. My name is Giovanni, am feeling so much better now after Dr. Raymond healed me of corona virus with the help of a spell. it really hurt to have lost my mother and wife to this virus before meeting this great healer, i am so happy to have survive this deadly virus. A friend of mine Lee from China told me how this great Dr. Raymond healed two of his Daughter with a spell, so I decided to contact him immediately for help. I did as he instructed and now am healed completely. What a magnificent experience with Dr Raymond. I will not stop sharing these testimonies until each patients  recovered. Thanks to the great Dr. Raymond for restoring my health. Contact him via: Email> swiftspellcast@gmail.com   WhatsApp> +2348118116281
    He also solve issues listed below
    (1)HIV/AIDS
    (2) Do you always have a nightmare?
    (3) Do you want to be promoted in the office?
    (4) Spiritual protection
    (5) Do you want children?
    (6) Do you want to get rich?
    (7) You want your husband / wife to be yours forever?
    (8) Do you need financial assistance?
    (9) Are you cheated and want to Recover lost money?
    (10) Cancer treatment and various diseases
    (11) You want to stop divorce
    (12) Commercial protection
    (13) Looking for a job
    (14) Body care
    (15) Divorce spell. (16)Bring back my Ex.
    If you need to resolve any of these issues today, please contact the solution temple ...

    ReplyDelete
  34. Strong And Powerful Love Spell To Win Your Ex Back.. I have decided that i am going to spend the whole day on the internet just to make sure that a lot of people are able to read this my testimony about Dr.happy who is a powerful spell caster from Africa, After been abandon by my lover i was so lonely that very day that i decided to go through the net for some relationships tips, I never knew that this was the road map that will secure the return of my lover. After reading a lot of tips on how to restore my relationship in a more better way i discovered that Dr.happy has a lot of recommendation than other spell casters, So with this i had my mind made up that Dr.happy was the right person for the job, And i contacted Dr.happy through his details which i saw on the internet and i was so happy that i chose to work with Dr.happy because his work was 100% perfect and the spell brought my lover back to me with fast relief you can also contact him for help now email.. happylovespell2@gmail.com
    Website...happylovespell2.webnode.com/
    Whatsapp/cal +2348133873774

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